S19 Current Player Odds

[FML|Renaud]

Love it!
Especially the part where 98.8% chances of making the top 3 :)

[FML|Renaud]

Another game was played!  I want an update :)

[FML|red7z7]

Re-ran the simulation with fixed-results for M26, and Mog's +1 TB. Results are not in order. Cheers.

New stuff:

• Steppin now has a 0% chance of making into semis, and therefore 0% chance of winning s19.
  
• Red, qwest, steppin, yaws, and waN now have 0% chance of making top3 (gauranteed place in final)
• Renauds chance of getting top 3 dropped a whopping 1% down to 97.9%

Semis:
      noexxx, 1000000 (100.00%)
      ostone, 954988  (95.50%)
    sk2flash, 1000000 (100.00%)
 yaodintakoi, 719396  (71.94%)
         Wan, 316953  (31.70%)
      Renaud, 1000000 (100.00%)
       qwest, 121516  (12.15%)
      zTsoso, 359225  (35.92%)
     Yawsome, 278609  (27.86%)
         Mog, 1000000 (100.00%)
SteppinRazor, 0       (0.00%)
      Red7z7, 249313  (24.93%)

Semi cutoffs:
         105, 62631   (6.26%)
          90, 27878   (2.79%)
          91, 127358  (12.74%)
         100, 591742  (59.17%)
          95, 190391  (19.04%)

Top 3:
      noexxx, 302237  (30.22%)
      ostone, 402264  (40.23%)
    sk2flash, 683014  (68.30%)
 yaodintakoi, 71614   (7.16%)
         Wan, 0       (0.00%)
      Renaud, 979155  (97.92%)
       qwest, 0       (0.00%)
      zTsoso, 51416   (5.14%)
     Yawsome, 0       (0.00%)
         Mog, 510300  (51.03%)
SteppinRazor, 0       (0.00%)
      Red7z7, 0       (0.00%)

Top3 cutoffs:
         130, 81103   (8.11%)
         131, 10319   (1.03%)
         110, 63447   (6.34%)
         111, 59816   (5.98%)
         115, 371922  (37.19%)
         116, 135260  (13.53%)
         120, 103614  (10.36%)
         125, 140604  (14.06%)
         126, 33915   (3.39%)

Final wins:
      noexxx, 1906711 (11.92%)
      ostone, 2161780 (13.51%)
    sk2flash, 3049042 (19.06%)
 yaodintakoi, 934238  (5.84%)
         Wan, 316953  (1.98%)
      Renaud, 3937465 (24.61%)
       qwest, 121516  (0.76%)
      zTsoso, 513473  (3.21%)
     Yawsome, 278609  (1.74%)
         Mog, 2530900 (15.82%)
SteppinRazor, 0       (0.00%)
      Red7z7, 249313  (1.56%)

[FML|Mog]

Basically, I need to hope Ostone or Flash finish 4th in their game on Thursday and that neither of them wins. GO SOSO OR SEKSI!

[FML|Renaud]

but the good news is that we will play each other (again) in the last round!

unless someone switches us out... but since we are pretty much the same kind of player it wouldn't make sense

[Ugrilainen]

This is useless as we all know, Renaud will be S19 champion using his double gold card + cloak of invisibility card in the final!

[FML|Mog]

^this is true, but us nerds love our crazy detailed in depth stats!

[FML|Renaud]

Yep, I like looking at the odds and everything but... in the end you just need to win every game and you will be fine :D

[FML|red7z7]

Updated after M27. Assumes qwest 5pts and not replaced by seksi. As always, does not account for future swaps, subs or new TB.

• Renaud 100% in top 3
• zTsoso now 0% top 3
• Average cutoff points for semis dropped a little. Good chance of being 91 or 95

Semis:
      sk2flash, 1000000 (100.00%)
        noexxx, 1000000 (100.00%)
        Renaud, 1000000 (100.00%)
           Mog, 1000000 (100.00%)
        ostone, 916872  (91.69%)
   yaodintakoi, 833392  (83.34%)
           Wan, 416905  (41.69%)
       Yawsome, 333060  (33.31%)
        Red7z7, 250423  (25.04%)
        zTsoso, 249348  (24.93%)
         qwest, 0       (0.00%)
  SteppinRazor, 0       (0.00%)


Semi cutoffs:
            90, 83196   (8.32%)
            91, 167198  (16.72%)
            95, 249605  (24.96%)
           100, 500001  (50.00%)


Top 3:
        Renaud, 1000000 (100.00%)
      sk2flash, 750076  (75.01%)
           Mog, 582485  (58.25%)
        noexxx, 333825  (33.38%)
        ostone, 250516  (25.05%)
   yaodintakoi, 83098   (8.31%)
           Wan, 0       (0.00%)
         qwest, 0       (0.00%)
        zTsoso, 0       (0.00%)
       Yawsome, 0       (0.00%)
  SteppinRazor, 0       (0.00%)
        Red7z7, 0       (0.00%)


Top3 cutoffs:
           110, 83240   (8.32%)
           111, 83137   (8.31%)
           115, 353682  (35.37%)
           116, 292174  (29.22%)
           120, 62584   (6.26%)
           125, 41757   (4.18%)
           130, 83426   (8.34%)


Final wins:
        Renaud, 4000000 (25.00%)
      sk2flash, 3250228 (20.31%)
           Mog, 2747455 (17.17%)
        noexxx, 2001475 (12.51%)
        ostone, 1668420 (10.43%)
   yaodintakoi, 1082686 (6.77%)
           Wan, 416905  (2.61%)
       Yawsome, 333060  (2.08%)
        Red7z7, 250423  (1.57%)
        zTsoso, 249348  (1.56%)
         qwest, 0       (0.00%)
  SteppinRazor, 0       (0.00%)

[FML|Renaud]

Thanks for the updates!

[Pinballmap]

Nice but didnt you say that Renaud has a 40% chance to win the finals in the starting post? (I can not see the pictures of the original post) Now it dropped to 25% (which makes more sense to me since it s 1/4 for the finals players)

[FML|red7z7]

I actually edited that figure even in the original post because it was wrong. It actually was like 25% for renaud at the beginning of round 5, which was still drastically higher than any other player. (All the percentages from the 12 players summed to 100%, so the fact that he had 25% was very good).

[FML|Mage]

So... What are my odds?

Awesome job again red!

[FML|Renaud]

I will be expecting an update in 24h once the players have switched matches!