Race to the playoffs

[Ugrilainen]

What is at stake in this last round ?

5/10 players have secured their spot in the playoffs as 60pts should be required to qualify :

-  Daselend : he will be rank 1 unless he finishes 4th in his last game. Then he would probably be 3rd. That's a long shot

-    Magadansky  : need to win to get in the grands final. He could be tied with daselend and rain w/o having played any of them.  He would beat Rain cause he has a 2nd place while Rain has a 3rd.

- htrt : need to win to access the final. As he lost vs rain, he needs him to lose to access the grand final

-  Brainman : he is playing maga and htrt for a spot in the final. He needs to win. He would beat Rain in case of a tie.

- Rain : needs to win a fairly easy game compared to the other 60 pts. He is in final if he wins and Brainman and Maga dont.

----------

Then we have 15 players fighting for 5 spots :

50 pts
  PLEAZLEAVEDUCK : The only player who can play for 3rd to qualify. Would be eliminated probably in case of 4th place with 55 pts. He has a tough game, it could happen.


45 pts
-  Ugrilainen /  Elessar /  Murrock need to win M34  to access the playoffs which requires also to beat dkh.rain. I'd say Murrock could do it, Elessar maybe, Ugri pretty unlikely.

-  Darkness / Seksireturns /  Humanst4r /  Paterique (40pts) need to win M35. My favorites are Darkness and Humanstar, Seksi could do it, seems hard for paterique.

40 pts

-    Renaud /  Kajetan /  Slythe /  Kruppe need to win M36 to qualify. It will be close between renaud, Slythe and Kajetan. In my opinion, this game shows the big problem of the league format, these guys get the same chance of qualifying than those in M34/35 with a somehow easier cast.

-  W8man (35 pts) /  Johny.Boy can qualify if they win their game against 1 eliminated player ( hydro) and one guy who quited but still is present in the scheduling for some reason ( Majin) . For these 2 humans also, a fairly easier shot to the playoff.

The rest of the games will be for the fun (except M42).

[Magadansky]

Good analysis Ugri, but there is a mistake.

I will be ahead of Rain if we both dont win our matches. The only way he can be in front is if I finish 3rd and he 2nd - then it is determined by who and how played vs top ranking players.
 

  thanks Maga I updated it

[FML|Renaud]

ha! looking at the title i though this would analyse the player race :P

ps: notice that of all the player you mentionned (ie those who have a *chance* for the playoff) none of them play elf!!! :(

[Ugrilainen]

Pronostic :

Daselend
Magadansky
----
Dkh.Rain
htrt
brainman
PLzleaveduck
Darkness
W8man
Slythe
+?

  If rain wins, someone might advance to playoff with 55 pts. Some mathematician confirms plz

[FML|WorpeX]

WORPEX WORPEX HES OUR MAN IF HE CAN'T DO IT NO ONE CA-... aww who am I kidding, no I can't.

[FML|Renaud]

If rain wins, someone might advance to playoff with 55 pts. Some mathematician confirms plz

from what i can see 0-3 ppl can make it with 55pts

M33 (1-2)
If rain gets first, only he is above 55,
otherwise, rain and winner are above 55
M34 (3-4)
if Duck gets last, only 3 are above 55
M35 (1)
Winner will be the only one above 55
M36 (1)
Winner will be the only one above 55
M35 (0-1)
If hydro wins, no one is above 55
...
M42 (1)
Dase will be the only one above 55

Result:
7 player will have above 55 for sure
3 player might have above 55

So you 55pointers have to hope for one (or more!) or three things
-Rain getting first
-Duck getting last
-Hydro getting first

[FML|Renaud]

if we assume that everyone has an equal chances of winning
Chances of exactly x player with 55pts making the playoffs

0: 35.9%
1: 57.8%
2: 4.7%
3: 1.6%

and so the probability of at least 1 player with 55pts passing is... 64.1%

ofc, this is assuming i still remember how to do maths, and that all player have equals chances of winning each match

EDIT: THEREFORE (holyshit here comes a conclusion!)

Player with 45-50pt who have much harder match also have more chance of qualifying! (that was probably all part of worpex's master plan)

[Peregrine]

all i know is rain needs to win. that guy better fucking show up

1% chance of making playoffs!!!!!

[FML|Renaud]

where did you get 1%? O_o

"Easiest" way to find this (imo), would be to make every win permutation possible for the match 33-39 (16 384 possibilities) and checking the tie breaker for each and everyone of of them

Imo this time would be best invested polishing your skill to make sure you get 1st place!!!!

[Ugrilainen]

Awesome work.

My game would be the key to the playoff and to the finals! Some will want Rain to lose, some him to win!

[Seksi]

Thanks for the good analysis'!

"In my opinion, this game shows the big problem of the league format, these guys get the same chance of qualifying than those in M34/35 with a somehow easier cast."

I agree with you, it seemed to work out better if you were on the cusp of making it (40 pts) rather then a higher position (45 pts).  The 40 pt players do get a somewhat easier cast, where as only one 45pt player out of 3 will make the playoffs. (1 out of Darkness, Humans7ar, Seksi)... Right?  In most other cases, all 3 of us should/would make playoffs. 

However there are a lot of good players, I would say close to the same about deserving to make the playoffs in Slythe, Renaud, and Sparkle.  So it's not that big of a deal, should make for some good games! If anything, regrets could be pointed to earlier games. 

One note is that some players definately got easier roads then others, in regards to the games they played.  Some of the top players never played some other top players, and in the same regard some mid-level players had to play top players in every game.  Ultimately the standings are pretty accurate, so again it did not make THAT much of a difference.  However, I'm sure players like Eshan and Majin deserve the playoff.  (sorry if I missed someone, off the top of my head).

Should be a nice round 4, nontheless! Some players will be left out that probably a deserve a spot, but that's how it goes.  Looking forward to another great season, hopefully a tad bit longer (6 or 8 games if possible?) to help ensure a more accurate standings.

[FML|Renaud]

for the swiss-style to work for ffa, we probably should drop the ideal of having the player never face the same player twice
and for the amount of player we had, we should probably have more round, i agree

[FML|Renaud]

o and you made a mistake, two player with 45 pts will make it to the next round
1 out of Darkness, Humans7ar, Seksi... unless they lose to paterique (40 pts guy ftw!)
1 out of ugri/murrock/vk5... unless they lose to rain

but imo, every player with 40-45 pts are "unimportant" they are the newbs who din't manage to win 2 games and will be used to fill the missing places... or unlucky.. but in that case they have the 4th round to redeem themselves ^^

[Ugrilainen]

I made a lot of propositions which were not taken into consideration, that's life.

To make simple :
Swiss style is great!

We had very nice top round 2 and 3 games thanks to it. It's better than having some tops ownings noobs every sunday.
For low rank players like me (or Kruppe hi buddy) you get a shot to balanced games and to have some fun.
Everyone still have a shot at playoff at the end of round 2. There are less games without any stake.

However, it needs improvements :
I dislike very much the tie breaking system. I had other ideas but i dont want to make a long post.

Also I think the league should be organized in 4 rounds like this :

round 1 - Random games
round 2 - swiss system
round 3 - swiss system
round 4  - balanced games between all potentials playoffs qualifiers. It would be kinda quarter finals, with some seedings.

[FML|WorpeX]

You also had a lot of propositions which were used though Ugri!

I agree that the system does need some work. A great idea was suggested (BY UGRI) which we plan to implement next season to help the tie problem while also still encouraging great games.

I plan on making a suggestion thread after round 4 is over for people to suggest ideas for next season. So think up some good stuff! I'm looking for ideas which will improve the quality of the games and also the fairness of the system. :D