FFA Masters League

League => League Discussion => Topic started by: rygorych on December 14, 2011, 05:46:32 pm

Title: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: rygorych on December 14, 2011, 05:46:32 pm
1. Q-veta
2. Renaud
3. Duck
4. YZ

These four area already high on points and will likely win at least 1 other game. I don't think l77 will win another game, nor will Kruppe.

5. Darkness
Rough start, but he will put in 2 more wins.

6. Rain
Bad (karmic) luck last game, but I'm pretty sure he can pull out 2/3.

7. Maga
Now that he's in the baddie bracket, he can get some free wins.

8. Johny
Solid and consistent, 2/3 is safe bet.

9. Eshan
He will likely lose 1 more game and then pull out 2 wins in the baddie brackets.

10. Rebuke
As much as I think Rebuke is one-cookie pony, he should be able to stall for 9 more hours and 2 more wins.


Close, but not quite:

Rygorych - the Gold Rush rush+disconnect screwed me over hard. I've had the game mapped out down to a tee. The shit I had in store for the speshul-ebo-strat you wouldn't believe. Unfortunately you won't see it ever, or unless I play another gold rush FML round. I think I will win 1/3 in the last 3 rounds, which won't be enough to make playoffs.

Wrecktify - solid with HU and even NE on his last game, obviously not as rusty anymore, but he is lacking the pizzaz for this season. He will put another win 1, but I'm not sure about 2.

Starshaped - not unless the stars shine on him

Darkermirror - I'd love for this guy to make the playoffs, but he is going to facing some tough titties next 2 rounds. I can only see him winning 1, the last one.

Ugri - I'm not sure if Ugri can cut it with 2/3 or only 3/3. But honestly, sorry Ugri, as much as I like you, I don't think you can do 2/3.

W8man - Same as darker, not going to make more than 1/3.

Lightweight - I'd love for him to make it out of lost qualifier into semis, and hopefully using a Naga, but sorry, not quite there yet.

Walking, Human* and Sparkle are pretty low on points, so they'd need some hard luck to get it in.

Dase - yeah, he might win 3/3 in baddie brackets, but I think odds are against him, especially if he faces maga + 2 decents.




========

My finals lineup:


1. Duck - probably top 3 player right now when combined micro + macro. Unlike Maga, which would be natural to compare, knows how to not get teamed. I'm not sure if  Duck will be in top 1/2 auto finalists, or come out of playoffs, that's going to depend on his next 3 matchups and how tough they are on UD.

2. Darkness - unfortunately, it's time for cookie to finally cut its way in to the finals. I don't think Darkness will be 1/2, but he will most likely win his semi.

3. Either Q or Renaud. Karma says, they will have to fight it out again in the semis.

4. A wildcard. Johny, or Rain, likely, the guys you expect to perform very well, but not quite in the finals.



Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: FML|Renaud on December 14, 2011, 06:32:39 pm
This is both an interesting and scary topic, i'll try to write something!
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: FML|Renaud on December 14, 2011, 07:12:56 pm
First, lets try to figure the points we need
Last season was 55 pts, so I would guess we need 85 pts this time ((55/4) * 6)
(This is an estimation, don't go quoting me if you don't make it with 85 pts!!!)

Based on those assumptions:

60-61
Must not get last  twice (unless they win the other)

55
Either win once, or never get last

40-45
must win once

25-35
Must win twice

15-20
Must win thrice
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: rygorych on December 14, 2011, 07:43:30 pm
No way Renaud, your numbers are way off. I'm pretty sure the playoffs cutoff point will be around 95-100.
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Walking.TrL on December 14, 2011, 10:34:03 pm
No way Renaud, your numbers are way off. I'm pretty sure the playoffs cutoff point will be around 95-100.

Meh we've had 3/6 rounds and the cut-off is 45.  So.... lets say 90?
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Kruppe on December 15, 2011, 08:16:41 pm
This topic stinks of impertinence.

Kruppe played 7 FML games and won 3 of them, by being able to win 2 more despite of hardcore PM-team-zerging performed by established players including admins versus a new player.

Kruppe won vs. Darkness, Madzoo, Slythe, Starshaped (twice), Magadansky and Wrecktify.

Dear colleagues, in the name of all new players in this league who did well, I kindly ask for more respect.

And Kruppe will never stop playing to win.

Concerning APM discussion - analyze Kruppe's replays regarding actions, use abilities and ignore right clicks.

Kruppe will not retreat.



Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: rygorych on December 15, 2011, 08:26:01 pm
This isn't about respect. Just predictions.
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Kruppe on December 15, 2011, 08:35:24 pm
Ok, now Kruppe understands.

Still Kruppe is interested how the predictions match my post.

Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Wrecktify on December 15, 2011, 09:04:48 pm
This topic stinks of impertinence.

Kruppe played 7 FML games and won 3 of them, by being able to win 2 more despite of hardcore PM-team-zerging performed by established players including admins versus a new player.

Kruppe won vs. Darkness, Madzoo, Slythe, Starshaped (twice), Magadansky and Wrecktify.

Dear colleagues, in the name of all new players in this league who did well, I kindly ask for more respect.

And Kruppe will never stop playing to win.

Concerning APM discussion - analyze Kruppe's replays regarding actions, use abilities and ignore right clicks.

Kruppe will not retreat.

Technically you won in a GAME with me, you lost multiple fights and a base to me :)
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Kruppe on December 15, 2011, 09:09:06 pm
My dear Sir,

I lost one fight versus you when I was ~67.

All following fights I won clearly.

Or was it me porting back? Or retreating to the base with 3 heroes nearly dead?
Watch that replay, dear friend.


Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: FML|Renaud on December 15, 2011, 09:15:42 pm
In war, there is only one battle you must win, the last one :D
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Kruppe on December 15, 2011, 09:17:50 pm
True words, Renaud.
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: rygorych on December 15, 2011, 09:32:41 pm
I love Kruppe. Somehow I always imagine him as this huge troll.
For example:

This topic stinks of impertinence.

Kruppe played 7 FML games and won 3 of them, by being able to win 2 more despite of hardcore PM-team-zerging performed by established players including admins versus a new player.

Kruppe won vs. Darkness, Madzoo, Slythe, Starshaped (twice), Magadansky and Wrecktify.

Dear colleagues, in the name of all new players in this league who did well, I kindly ask for more respect.

And Kruppe will never stop playing to win.

Concerning APM discussion - analyze Kruppe's replays regarding actions, use abilities and ignore right clicks.

Kruppe will not retreat.

(click to show/hide)

Ok, now Kruppe understands.

Still Kruppe is interested how the predictions match my post.

(click to show/hide)

My dear Sir,

I lost one fight versus you when I was ~67.

All following fights I won clearly.

Or was it me porting back? Or retreating to the base with 3 heroes nearly dead?
Watch that replay, dear friend.

(click to show/hide)

True words, Renaud.

(click to show/hide)



Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: FML|Mage on December 15, 2011, 09:44:05 pm
I trust that the master of the deck will allow only what information is necessary to become available for poor Kruppe. That being said, I'm sure that Kruppe has prevailed against tougher opponents then those listed however.
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Ugrilainen on December 16, 2011, 01:45:27 am
Kruppe is really touchy when someone is not mentioning him as a favorite or recognizing his talent as he thinks he should.

Frankly I played you once and took you out easily on deathrose in battle with same food score. So I'm not very impressed and i wouldnt make you one of my favorite neither.

you won 3 games that's good but i remember that 2 of them were handed to you (especially the madzoo one with 2 players suiciding each other while you just mine all market square). The last you won , all the obs were wondering as well why you would be left alone for so long.

In the end I think you are pretty good but still an underdog. Same level as players like Johny, darkermirror or else, who could finish between 9-16th approx.

And before you get personal on 3rd person style, ugrilainen will finish in the last 8 because his skill is low and he cannot train at all nowadays
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Rebuke[SkyNet] on December 16, 2011, 02:20:55 am
i didnt even know there was someone named kruppe in this league
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Rain on December 16, 2011, 06:10:16 am
Current top 5 + Darkess + Simo + 3rdm guys (for which I predict: me + w8man + kruppe/rebuke/wreck)
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: kazupi on December 16, 2011, 10:41:05 am
hilarous analysis of kruppe by ebo :D
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Kruppe on December 16, 2011, 10:55:14 am
Kruppe still is laughing from that post Ebo made!

Although Kruppe respects every player and does not think of them as fags or noobs!

The only exception from that is the player "rebuke[SkyNet]" who is unknown to Kruppe! In the back of his mind Kruppe recalls a human player pacing with unhealthy blood pressure 100/100 over the map, insulting other players and getting quite horny about his own micro. Could that be him?

In deed Kruppe is tired of this now but it was a lot of fun, wasn't it?

Just to keep the battle going:

Dear Ugri, that game you lost because of rushing Kruppe. w8man sat there hoarding while you killed Kruppe's rebuild instead of hoarding yourself after kicking Kruppe's hurting arse over and over!

In ladder Kruppe won every game versus you!

And now for the first time @topic:

Kruppe's top 10:

Q
Renaud
Duck
y.z
Rain
w8man
wreck
darkness
maga
DasElend

Chances still for ugri, L77, slythe & eshan.

Kruppe will miss semis by 1-11 points.
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Seksi on December 16, 2011, 03:43:58 pm
haha this thread is awesome. 

Also, feel lucky I'm not here to take one of the top 10 spots... next season.. next season... ;)

I haven't followed the season close enough but I'm calling:

Kruppe - Season Champion!
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Wrecktify on December 16, 2011, 07:16:11 pm

The only exception from that is the player "rebuke[SkyNet]" who is unknown to Kruppe! In the back of his mind Kruppe recalls a human player pacing with unhealthy blood pressure 100/100 over the map, insulting other players and getting quite horny about his own micro. Could that be him?



Ok im seriously flying to Germany right now and buying you all the booze you want.
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: FML|red7z7 on December 16, 2011, 07:49:23 pm
Qveta
Renaud
duck
L77
y.z
rain
starshaped
wreck
lightweight
rebuke
lolwut
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Kruppe on December 16, 2011, 08:00:50 pm

The only exception from that is the player "rebuke[SkyNet]" who is unknown to Kruppe! In the back of his mind Kruppe recalls a human player pacing with unhealthy blood pressure 100/100 over the map, insulting other players and getting quite horny about his own micro. Could that be him?



Ok im seriously flying to Germany right now and buying you all the booze you want.

My dear Sir,

you are always welcome! You bring the booze - I have the voodoo puppet of rebuke.

Sounds like fun, doesn't it?

My girlfriend prepares the sofa, but she can't be charmed.

Best regards old friend,
Kruppe
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Wrecktify on December 16, 2011, 08:03:14 pm

The only exception from that is the player "rebuke[SkyNet]" who is unknown to Kruppe! In the back of his mind Kruppe recalls a human player pacing with unhealthy blood pressure 100/100 over the map, insulting other players and getting quite horny about his own micro. Could that be him?



Ok im seriously flying to Germany right now and buying you all the booze you want.

My dear Sir,

you are always welcome! You bring the booze - I have the voodoo puppet of rebuke.

Sounds like fun, doesn't it?

My girlfriend prepares the sofa, but she can't be charmed.

Best regards old friend,
Kruppe

Seriously who doesn't love this guy?

I wouldnt dream of charming your girlfriend.  But if you're down for a menage....  :icon_mrgreen:
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: FML|WorpeX on December 16, 2011, 08:05:20 pm

The only exception from that is the player "rebuke[SkyNet]" who is unknown to Kruppe! In the back of his mind Kruppe recalls a human player pacing with unhealthy blood pressure 100/100 over the map, insulting other players and getting quite horny about his own micro. Could that be him?



Ok im seriously flying to Germany right now and buying you all the booze you want.

My dear Sir,

you are always welcome! You bring the booze - I have the voodoo puppet of rebuke.

Sounds like fun, doesn't it?

My girlfriend prepares the sofa, but she can't be charmed.

Best regards old friend,
Kruppe


OH MY GOD YOU DIDNT TALK IN 3RD PERSON!!!!! I didn't know that was possible for you.
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Kruppe on December 16, 2011, 08:13:14 pm
Dear Wreck,

that would be considered cheating!

So Drinks & Fun are the weapons of choice!

:D

Dear WorpeX,

sometimes other personalities overwhelm Kruppe. That's not a bug, it's a feature.

My battles with Wreck go way back when Kruppe didn't even exist.

Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Peregrine on December 17, 2011, 12:38:18 pm
wow im literally in love with kruppe lol
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: FML|Renaud on December 27, 2011, 10:51:20 pm
First, lets try to figure the points we need
Last season was 55 pts, so I would guess we need 85 pts this time ((55/4) * 6)
(This is an estimation, don't go quoting me if you don't make it with 85 pts!!!)

after 4 round, the point cut off for top 10 is 56 points
(56/4) * 6 = 84
So far it looks like my estimation is correct!
However since said estimation is based on a previous 4 round season, it could be wrong (because using the same logic last round gave us (45/3)*6 = 90)

So the new estimation (assuming everyone shows up to the games)
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: FML|Renaud on January 09, 2012, 09:15:37 pm
Update!  Still assuming that 85 is the number to get, and everyone shows up to the games!

Are in (80+)
   L77, YZ, Q, Renaud, Jonhy
Must get 3rd (75+)
   Rain, Duck, Kruppe
Must get 1st (60+)
   wreck, maga


(These player still have 2 game to play)
Must get 1st and 4th (55+)
   LW, Starshaped
Must get 1st and 3rd (50+)
   Darkness, Darkermirror, Slythe, Rebuke
Must get 1st twice (35+)
   w8man, rygo (both in the same game)
   hydro, kane (both in the same game)

Chances are that the last round will be:
2 game mostly to decided the final position (few will have to win... meh)
2 game where everyone must get 1st in order to qualify (should be epic!)
and well... 4 games that will have no consequences on the semis

Edit/Warning:
This is assuming 85 pts is the break point... and chances are it's going to be a tie at 85... so I highly suggest you try to get as much points as you can :P
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: rygorych on January 09, 2012, 10:11:16 pm
Pretty sure it's actually around 95.
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Rain on January 11, 2012, 01:42:30 pm
11th guy in points currently has 60 points. How do you see him getting +35 in 1 match? (If its 1 match left, if its 2 then forget it.)
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: FML|Renaud on January 11, 2012, 02:33:31 pm
11th place is LW and he still has 2 game to be played
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: FML|Renaud on January 15, 2012, 04:31:19 pm
First, lets try to figure the points we need
Last season was 55 pts, so I would guess we need 85 pts this time ((55/4) * 6)
(This is an estimation, don't go quoting me if you don't make it with 85 pts!!!)

after 4 round, the point cut off for top 10 is 56 points
(56/4) * 6 = 84
So far it looks like my estimation is correct!

after 5 round, the cut off point for top 10 is 70 points
(70/5) * 6 = 84
So far it looks like my estimation is correct!

However no one will have 84, so (depending on the match ups, and who wins what) it will probably be possible to get in with 80 (or 81 :D)
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: rygorych on January 15, 2012, 04:41:40 pm
Cutoff will be 90-95, you'll see.
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: FML|Renaud on January 15, 2012, 05:31:31 pm
well 95 is impossible (current 11th place cannot reach it, and there is no permutation that would allow every player in the top 10 to end up with 95+, using the swiss system)

90 might be possible depending on the mu, but I would highly doubtful, because only the rank 1-13 would have a chance, and more than half of them wouldn't be able to be in unless they get 1st place (and chances are that those 7 player will be in 2-3 match, meaning only 3 max would be able to get 1st place... would end up with 9 player... BUT it's possible)
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Ugrilainen on January 15, 2012, 05:58:44 pm
your calculations are flawed, there can be game won by subs which would reduce the needed amount of points
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: FML|Renaud on January 15, 2012, 06:12:32 pm
my calculation of 84 takes that into consideration!!!
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: Lightweight! on January 15, 2012, 06:35:07 pm
The calculation from Renaud is made for a world with a purple sky, pink clouds, and chocolate houses and of course no orc race in wc3.
Title: Re: Predict your top 10 going into playoffs/finals
Post by: rygorych on January 15, 2012, 08:36:01 pm
well 95 is impossible (current 11th place cannot reach it, and there is no permutation that would allow every player in the top 10 to end up with 95+, using the swiss system)

90 might be possible depending on the mu, but I would highly doubtful, because only the rank 1-13 would have a chance, and more than half of them wouldn't be able to be in unless they get 1st place (and chances are that those 7 player will be in 2-3 match, meaning only 3 max would be able to get 1st place... would end up with 9 player... BUT it's possible)

OK fine, 90-93.