Hey guys. I took it upon myself as a sort of fun exercise out of curiosity to calculate the odds for each of the remaining 12 players to win the season. As a byproduct of that calculation I was also able to calculate the chances of each player getting top 3 and top 7 after Round 6, which is relevant to who goes to the semifinal and who gets a gauranteed spot in the final. Hope you all find this interesting or useful and maybe I'll do more of these analyses in the future :). Cheers!
How did I do these calculations? I wrote a python script which simulated the season playing out match-by-match for one-million times, with random players winning each match each time. That means this calculation assumes each player in any given match has an equal chance of winning that match.
Some notes:
- I accounted for M25 being played already, that outcome was fixed
- I accounted for renaud and ostones double score cards being used in R6. Thus if either of them chooses not to use it for some crazy reason, everything here is totally wrong
- I accounted for TB points, even subtracting renaud and ostones DS ones
- I accounted for matchups for R6 changing based on outcomes of R5
- I did not account for possible future gains of TB points. This may be slightly significant as I gave Renaud a TB point for R5 while two other players will yet gain a TB point for R5, but I did not calculate for that
- I did not account for any future match swaps
- I did not account for people getting future top-score +1 bonus
- I did not account for players missing/being subbed
**Disclaimer: It is likely that there could be errors in the calculations or the graphs because I'm human, there are a lot of variables to account for, and I'm not being paid to do this**
(1)
First up, heres the chances of each of the players getting into the top 7 (in other words, the chance of not being eliminated after round 6). Most notable is Renaud, sk2flash, and noexxx are 100% gauranteed to not be eliminated!
*The x-axis shows how many games out of 1 million resulted in that player not being eliminated after round 6. Thus, divide by 1000000 to get the % likelihood.
(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ewlGZbKEdnVB6D0buIwvAGisDCgVP-6aHkXUyFU66VU/embed/oimg?id=1ewlGZbKEdnVB6D0buIwvAGisDCgVP-6aHkXUyFU66VU&oid=1478788624&zx=phpx4044ievu)
For those interested, I've provided what the cutoff scores are for the top 7 as well. The following chart shows the likelihood of each of the score-values on the x-axis being the cutoff value. For example, see that there is nearly 60% chance of 100 being the minimum score to make top 7. There is a small chance the cutoff will be as low as 90. Missing values, such as 96, are impossible.
(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YtvKCFSOntwubH0FxpXOubMje6yjlDPWK8yXqAaQYJE/embed/oimg?id=1YtvKCFSOntwubH0FxpXOubMje6yjlDPWK8yXqAaQYJE&oid=1300496217&zx=7xdb8hjjcxvr)
(2)
Next up, we have the chances of each player making top 3 after R6, guaranteeing them a spot in the s19 finals. Notably, Renaud has over 98% chance of getting in, while Yaws has a 0% chance of it at this point!
(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mtJwxe6b_AXWKnJmLZj6PIMjJMT1Xrp8odXhglSaWg4/embed/oimg?id=1mtJwxe6b_AXWKnJmLZj6PIMjJMT1Xrp8odXhglSaWg4&oid=1754787086&zx=cihlidgwo3qj)
Again I've provided the chances of each of the possible minimum values, this time for making top 3 after R6. It is most likely (with a 30% chance) going to be 115 points, but there could be a freak-accident making it as low as 105 or as high as 131!
(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M2BYy2i7QoO_I2VaEQjX6XzI-o99adLzpFOkfmM8rg0/embed/oimg?id=1M2BYy2i7QoO_I2VaEQjX6XzI-o99adLzpFOkfmM8rg0&oid=1221018777&zx=binkk7a69053)
(3)
And finally, here are the chances of each player winning the entire S19. It's looking good for Renaud right now at nearly 25% chance! **Edit: corrected this value. I simulated 1 million outcomes for up to R6, but after that for final it's easy to calculate odds -- 4 possible winners of the semi, and 4 possible winners of the final for each outcome of the semi, thus 4x4 = 16 more outcomes for each of the 1000000 outcomes of R6. Thus, divide by 16 million for the final rather than 1 million to get percentage! For reference, ostone has a 14% chance, and yaodintakoi has a 7% chance, and yaws has a 1.5% chance. Every player still has a chance though! **Edit: to clarify, this distribution is not the chance of a player winning the final match in isolation. Instead, it accounts for each of the matches played between R5, R6, and semis as well, and then the chances of winning the final after all that.
(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1McsW_euLeCUKxfOK0U5gvx-2xchPwQ1hJVk7aJ2vl-I/embed/oimg?id=1McsW_euLeCUKxfOK0U5gvx-2xchPwQ1hJVk7aJ2vl-I&oid=2061014967&zx=xecdljrfom71)
**Note: if anyone feels like checking my work or running the code themselves, feel free message me. I also might upload it to github or something and post the link later.**